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Forecast basis: First, the seeding rate of seed potatoes is high. The utilization rate of potato commodity seed potatoes in major production areas is less than 20%, mainly relying on farmers' retention of seed potatoes. In recent years, potato late blight has shown increasing epidemic trend year by year. Seed tuber infection rate is high, and the initial infection source of bacteria is sufficient. The second is that varieties have poor disease resistance. At present, the proportion of susceptible varieties in each major producing area exceeds 80%, and the series of varieties such as Feiruitai, Sharpotti, Atlantic, and Kexin promoted in large areas are not resistant to diseases and are favorable to the epidemic of late blight. The third is a large area. Potato growing areas in major producing areas are mainly concentrated in mountain areas. Farmers have a habit of planting potatoes year after year, which is beneficial to the survival and early infection of late blight pathogens. Fourth, favorable weather conditions. According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the rainfall in major potato growing areas in July was flat or slightly higher than usual, and the temperature was flat or slightly higher. This kind of climatic conditions had no adverse impact on the spread of potato late blight.
The Trend of Potato Late Blight in Autumn
According to the current analysis of potato growing and growing conditions in each major producing area, epidemiological characteristics of late blight, and national climate center climate forecast results, the potato potato late blight is expected to be moderately popular in the eastern northwest, northern North China, western northeast, and southwestern potato production regions ( Level 3), some areas are prevalent (Level 4), and the area affected is 22.5 million mu.