Autumn grain purchase price is expected to be bullish on foreign capital and other funds have been eyeing

The price of grain is expected to be strong and the market is expected to be strong. “Eat food” is busy for all kinds of funds. In early June of this year, the family sold wheat at a price of 8 hairs per kilogram to the grain trader, but it rose to nearly 1 yuan in less than a month.” Zhang Fucheng, a farmer in Shangshui County, Zhoukou City, talked about this year’s harvest and couldn't help feeling that he had “sold up”.

After seven consecutive summer harvests, farmers in many regions of the country have been reluctant to sell, purchase of summer grain has been difficult, and purchase prices have skyrocketed. In some areas, the increase in wheat purchase prices has even been close to 20%. At a time when autumn grain production is a key issue, some grass-roots grain farmers in major provinces such as Henan and Shandong have said that the overall grain harvest this year is not too bad, but the prices of autumn grain such as corn and soybeans may be higher than last year.

Under the influence of the protection of the minimum grain purchase price policy and inflation expectations, various funds such as industrial capital, financial hot money, and foreign capital have been eyeing the food price cake that is easy to rise and fall under the background of the trust market, exerting an influence on the supply and demand situation and price expectations. .

The farmers who reluctantly sold their products for good harvests want to sell at a good price. “In the past year, the summer grain purchases were very busy. There was no expectation that this year would be sparse, and occasionally two or three vehicles. This year, our grain warehouse is definitely not satisfied with the harvest. When the autumn grain comes down, we only have to plan to close again. Point corn.” said Zhang Ming, head of grain storage in Zhoukou, Henan Province.

Henan Province is the largest grain-producing province in China. The grain output of Zhoukou City ranks first in the province for many years in a row, of which summer grain output accounts for about one-fifth of the country's total. In spite of the continuous harvest of summer grain for many years, many grain stores in Zhoukou City have encountered difficulties in acquisition. Last week, Zhoukou City, the lowest purchase price of three grades of 0.83 yuan per catty, and at the end of June this year rose to 0.99 yuan per catty or even 1 yuan. Afterwards, the state suspended the procurement of the city and rectified the order of governance. At present, although the price of wheat has dropped slightly, it is still stable at about 0.94 yuan per catty, which is more than 10% higher than last year.

Zhang Fucheng, a farmer from Shangshui County, Zhoukou City, said that he has planted three or four acres of wheat in his own family. This year, soon after the opening of the spring, grain merchants went to buy the house and sold wheat at the price of 0.87 yuan per kilogram in early June. “Sold to grain sellers, they take the initiative to come and claim good food, and in the past few years, the number of grain traders is significantly higher than before. The grain trader’s warehouse has no surplus grain, and wheat, corn, and soybeans are all harvested. The difference between a penny and a two cents, so that turnover actually makes a lot of money," he said.

“Up to now, only one-third of people in the village have sold the wheat. Others have either left it for rations or they want to wait for it to be sold again.” Zhang Fucheng explained that because he sold it for half a month, his own wheat was compared with his neighbors. Earn a few hundred dollars less.

Wang Lun, a farmer in Mengyin County, Linyi City, Shandong Province, introduced that he owns 56 mu of land and mainly grows soybeans and cotton. This year, the rain is relatively large, and there are more cotton pests and diseases. Therefore, we must reduce production, but the price has increased a bit more than before. “In recent years, the income from growing grains has been better than in the past year. In the past few years, some rural households subcontracted the land to other large households, and now they reclaimed the land and planted it themselves,” said Wang Lun.

It is worth noting that the recent food prices have remained stable. “The national grain purchase price is fixed, even if the financial subsidy of 6-7 cents per kilogram is counted, this year's purchase price rose to 1 yuan per catty is the limit that the grain bank can bear. The people who recently sold grain have added some more. Farmers rely on wheat to make money, and if prices don't rise, they plan to sell food." Zhang Ming introduced.

Starving occupy various funds that fight the dark wins <br> <br> food prices, who can benefit from it? Apart from increasing the income from grain sales by farmers and the difference in prices earned by grain dealers, a noteworthy phenomenon is that since the country implemented the policy of purchasing food for the city, the storage and storage capacity of grain storages in various regions has increased significantly. Various industries, such as industrial capital, financial hot money, and foreign capital, began to confide in the grain sources and benefit from it.

According to a reporter from the China Securities Journal, a person in charge of a grain bureau in Zhoukou City, Henan Province, since 2008, private grain collection and storage in Henan Province has significantly increased, and these food points can be built as long as they are approved by provincial grain companies. Local food sector management. The state's premium subsidies for grain purchases, coupled with the difficulty of a significant drop in the grain prices after the acquisition of the city, will enable the grain sites to recover their costs and make profits within a year or two as long as they can secure sufficient grain resources.

At present, in Henan Province, the state finance subsidizes 2.5 cents for the purchase of the wheat and 3.5 cents for the storage of the wheat. The person in charge of the above-mentioned grain management bureau said that he has been asked about the matter of investing in grain banks recently, but he believes that this is not a good opportunity to invest in grain banks. If you count the costs of site selection, recruitment, and purchase of wind turbines, the cost of building a grain warehouse will generally be 270-320 yuan per square meter. Although the cost is not particularly expensive, the local food supply has actually exceeded supply.

"A lot of food banks this year can't get food, and they definitely have to lose money. In the future, the country may issue a management policy for private grain stores, otherwise this area may expose serious problems," he said.

In Shangshui County, Zhoukou City, a reporter from the China Securities Journal met with a private food bank that has been suspended from acquisition. The grain store covers an area of ​​more than 200 square meters. The previously collected grain is piled up on the cement mantle, covered with a green protective shed, and the grain is also doped with some clam shells and gravel. “In order to grab food, many grain banks have secretly lowered the quality requirements of grades. Because of the poor ventilation, this grain bank has already received a lot of food and has no way to use it anymore. Some time ago, the government had come to investigate. This grain bank.” The nearby farmers quietly told the China Securities Journal reporter.

The difference from previous years was that COFCO and Hualiang Logistics Group were allowed to participate in the wheat market acquisition for the first time this year. Analysts said that this aspect has increased the competition in the grain purchasing market. On the other hand, diversification of acquisition subjects will help invigorate grain circulation and prevent individual companies from “dominating” or even pushing up grain prices. In 2009, China Grain Reserves acquired a total of 89.37 million tons of policy grain and oil, which accounted for about 17% of the country's total grain output.

It is worth mentioning that some foreign capital is infiltrating into the agricultural production hinterland of China through the channels of the physical industry. For example, the Yihai Grain and Oil Company invested by Singapore has gradually entered China's wheat and rice processing industries in recent years. Currently in Zhoukou City, the price of wheat purchased by the company is about 0.97 yuan per catty, which is higher than that of the vast majority of grain warehouses. The level quality of wheat is also more stringent. There are many privately contracted food sites in the country that have specialized in storing wheat and soybeans for Yihai in recent years.

With the advantages of complete industrial chain and advanced equipment, Yihai Company has already had the upper hand in the competition with local small and medium flour mills. "Yihai's current grain purchases are not very large, but their prices have always been higher than other grain stores, and they also have an upward driving role in grain prices," said Zhang Ming.

"This year's increase in grain purchase prices is a natural fluctuation in the city's acquisition policy. Looking back at history, the food price volatility before the introduction of the city's procurement policy in China was far greater than it is now, indicating that the positive significance of this system is obvious, but at present, It should be noted that the speed of grain storage expansion is somewhat too fast," said Cui Po, a senior analyst at Wanda Futures.

Inflation concerns are highly vigilant over hot money speculation

Tang Min, deputy secretary-general of the China Development Research Foundation, believes that the trend of grain prices in the second half of the year will be one of the uncertainties of CPI. Considering this year's harvest of summer grain in China, as long as there is no significant reduction in autumn grain production, there will be no major problems in grain supply this year.

In July, China's consumer price (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year, of which food prices rose 6.8%, a larger increase. In addition, the Bureau of Statistics announced that this year's early rice production was reduced by 6.1%. Affected by disasters and other factors, the total production in the main producing areas has dropped.

It is now at a critical time for the production of autumn crops. Some local farmers in Zhoukou believe that the current price of corn has reached about 1 yuan per catty, which is obviously higher than last year. When the autumn grain harvest, the price of corn may drop slightly, but it is definitely higher than last year. Soybean prices may be affected by international prices and major production areas in the Northeast, and they may also increase.

According to the person in charge of the Zhoukou City Bureau of Agriculture, as of the end of August, there was no major natural disaster in the autumn agricultural production in the city. The overall situation of autumn grain production was better than expected, and it is expected to achieve 5 billion kilograms or more of autumn grain output and 14.5 billion kilograms or more of annual grain output. aims.

For rice growing mainly in the South, Cui Po believes that the actual purchase price may be two or three cents more per kilogram than last year, and the price increase is less than summer grain.

Regarding the speculation of hot money for food prices, a person in charge of the Zhoukou City Food Bureau stated that the funds and enterprises currently active in the local grain market are still local-based, and the financial capital trails for fast-forward and fast-out are still not obvious. Some businessmen in Wenzhou and other places have quietly bought and hoarded food in recent years, but in the short term there seems to be no intention of selling or driving up prices. However, in the financial market, the prices of related agricultural products (18.60, 0.00, and 0.00%) have risen significantly. Take Zhengzhou Institute of Former Wheat as an example, the rate of increase has reached 10.8% since the end of June this year, and it is still at a high point recently. .

“If there are more than a billion funds that can seriously affect the supply and demand situation and prices of mung beans and other products, some agricultural product prices have actually been affected by this kind of impact this year. But for bulk agricultural products, the most serious impact is not on short-term speculation of hot money. This is the impact of infiltrating into the physical industry chain. For example, the autonomy of China's soybean industry has been far less than before.” Zhang Xiaojin, an analyst at China International Futures Corporation, believes.