More than 80% of the province's pork prices increase

The main driver of rising CPI, pork prices, now has a price shock.

The Xinhua News Agency’s national price monitoring system for agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials indicates that after the National Day, the overall domestic pork price showed a declining trend, with more than 80% of the province’s (regions, cities) pork prices falling.

According to local media reports, the prices of pork in Dalian, Liaoning, Datong, Shanxi, Dezhou, Shandong, and Jiaxing, Zhejiang all dropped significantly. Among them, pork prices have fallen by 11.9% compared with the peak time this year in the Liaoning region where the decline has been relatively large. According to a reporter from the Daily Economic News (Weibo), a person with industry in Guangzhou disclosed that compared with the peak during the year, pork prices in the Guangdong region have dropped by more than 20%.

Feng Yonghui, chief advisor of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, and other experts believe that the respiratory disease has become more frequent in recent seasons, and farmers have rushed to release slaughter pigs in advance. The market supply has increased and prices have dropped. It is expected that pork prices will still have some downside in the latter part of the year, but there is little possibility of a substantial drop and the overall operation will remain relatively high.

Supply increases pig price drop
The above Xinhua News Agency's monitoring data showed that compared with September 12, on October 21st, the prices of pigs' hip and sharp pork and pork belly decreased by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively. Among them, the prices of post-hip meat in Jilin, Liaoning, and Hubei had the highest declines of 6.6%, 5.4%, and 5.3%, respectively.

According to the reporter’s understanding, the Sichuan Provincial Department of Commerce’s monitoring from October 10 to October 16 showed that the pork price in the province began to decline for the first time this year, among which, the retail price of pork farmer’s market was RMB 30.95/kg, down by 0.79% month-on-month.

Monitoring data from the Shanghai Agricultural Products Center's wholesale market showed that on September 12th, the price of pigs at 30.8 yuan/kg was reduced to 29 yuan/kg on October 19, a decrease of 5.8%; the average wholesale price of fresh white bars was September 12. The daily rate was 24.59 yuan/kg, and it fell to 21.72 yuan/kg on October 19, a decrease of 11.7%.

Liu Feng, the general manager of Guangzhou Rifeng Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd., used the phrase “large-scale, down-grade” to describe this wave of decline. According to his estimation, compared with the peak of this year, the price in Guangdong has dropped by more than 20%.

Yesterday (October 24th), the reporter of “Daily Economic News” learned from Beijing’s Xinfadi Shuangqiao Market that on October 22, the price of white striped pig (skinny) in the market was 12 yuan/kg, and the price of white striped pig (fertilizer) was 10.5 yuan / kg. Compared with the National Day period, the decline was 8.3% and 4.7% respectively.

Xinhua News Agency reported that the information collectors of the national agricultural and sideline products and agricultural materials price quotation system reflect that due to the local government’s measures to support pig production and limit prices, the supply of pork has increased recently, so prices have dropped.

Feng Yonghui introduced that live pigs in the summer supplementation period have recently arrived at the time of centralized listing. With seasonal transformation, live pigs are threatened by periodic respiratory diseases. Under the above-mentioned dual influence, farmers have started to supply large numbers of live pigs to avoid possible effects of swine diseases. There has even been a sell-off in the region.

Crash is unlikely?

"The amount of pre-stocking is limited, while the pork consumption season brought about by bacon in the south will also come in the near future. Pork has a limited downside and may reach a critical point by the end of October." Feng Yonghui said that the rising cost of farming also made pork prices impossible. Continue to go down.

According to the search of pigs, the current national pig feed price ratio was 5.96:1, and the pig food price was 7.65:1, up 19.8% and 15.4% year-on-year respectively. Self-promotion led to a profit of 527 yuan.

Farmers' feed costs are also rising. Among them, the price of corn obtained by farmers across the country was 2.32 yuan/kg, up 19% year-on-year, and the price of compounded materials was about 2.98 yuan/kg, up 14.6% year-on-year.

According to CCTV, due to rising costs, the cost of local pig farmers in Dalian is now about 7.6 yuan/kg, and the purchase price has dropped from the original ten yuan to 8.5 yuan/kg.

Feng Yonghui expects that the market price of pork in the later period will still have some downside, but it is unlikely that there will be a substantial drop. The overall operation will remain relatively high.

At the same time, people in the industry stated that since March and April of this year, the number of piglets replenished is far below the level of the same period in previous years, and farmers’ willingness to replenish bar has lasted for half a year. The effect of these factors is expected to increase next year. appear.

He believes that the increase in supply will not last long, and the possibility of plunge in hog prices is unlikely. The current decline in pork prices does not constitute a cyclical trend, and what is worthy of attention is next year.