There are "four major hidden troubles" behind the "eight-fold increase" in China's grain supply.

"People work hard, help in heaven": Did you change the way you eat by heaven?

"The policy is good, people work hard, and the day helps". The "Nine-character secret" has two meanings behind it: Although China's grain production has been harvested year after year, it still fails to get rid of the traditional agriculture image of "eat by heaven."

“The region’s grain growth lasted for eight consecutive years and 'days of help' was still an important factor.” Wang Xiuzhi from Inner Mongolia said frankly that dry farming in Inner Mongolia still accounts for more than 60% of the whole region. Drought is the biggest factor constraining agricultural production.

“There are too many debts owed to agricultural infrastructure such as water conservancy, and floods and droughts are frequent and have threatened continuous grain production.” Representative Yang Juan from Sichuan said that in recent years, the breach of the embankment of the Anle River in Jiangxi Province has resulted in the flooding of large farmland. Yunnan has been flooded for three consecutive years. The drought also caused heavy damage to local food production.

As Minister of Agriculture Han Changfu pointed out, the “eight consecutive increase” in grain has laid a solid foundation for managing inflation expectations and stabilizing the overall price level; however, challenges such as weak agricultural infrastructure and insufficient support for science and technology are still severe.

What should I do after "Eight increase"? The key is to continue to increase investment, make up for deficits in the agricultural infrastructure, and gradually reverse the pattern of “living on heaven”.

"The central government's investment in agriculture, rural areas and farmers will be 122.87 billion yuan," Premier Wen Jiabao emphasized in his government work report this year, the current government will always regard the "three rural issues" as the top priority. In response, Lin Erda, a member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said: "As long as you are aware of the problems, you can solve the problem."

"Big Agriculture, Small Seeds": What Takes The Long "Innovation Short Board"?

"China is the second-largest seed market next to the United States, and its market size exceeds 50 billion yuan, but no company can compete with foreign seed giants." Talking about the domestic seed industry, Deli Derong, the dean of the Jilin Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said with emotion. .

For example, he said that the American pioneer company's corn variety “Xianyu 335” has occupied a large market share in Jilin for 4 years. People rely on nothing but “high yield, strong resistance, and good quality” technology. Innovation.

Desheng Derong’s words are supported by research data: There are more than 8,700 seed companies in the country, but they are in a “small, chaotic, scattered” competitive landscape. More than 90% of seed companies do not have R&D capabilities. In the words of industry insiders: "A good variety of domestic seed industry has been cultivated and it has been far away from the distance."

“We can't get a perfect breed, we can only become a multinational company's processing plant.” For example, an NPC representative said that as a listed company, Gansu Dunhuang Seed Industry annual sales revenue of over 100 million, but only a few local tax Million dollars, most of the profits will be given to Pioneer.

The key to large-scale agriculture and small seeds is the failure of scientific and technological innovation and promotion systems.

Zhao Zhihai’s representative pointed out the “two major cruxes”: the agricultural R&D system with scientific research institutes as the main body makes it difficult to link up with the actual results; the promotion system of the township stations (stations) as the context has broken the line and led to food Lack of safety "technology support."

Whether or not "Eight Increases" can continue is fundamentally in science and technology. Chen Xiwen, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said that last year's agricultural growth accounted for 53.5% of the contribution from scientific and technological progress. As a large food-consuming country, China’s “small seeds” are desperate to grow into “big industries”.

"Aging and Sideline": How hard is it to overcome the "threshold" of modern agriculture?

Han Jun, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, recently stated that the current “three ruralization” phenomenon has emerged in the “three rural issues”, namely, agricultural side-to-side, farmers aging, and hollow rural areas.

In response, some deputies said that grain-growing farmers are becoming “aged” and that agriculture has become a “sideline business” for young and middle-aged farmers. This phenomenon poses challenges to China’s food security and also constrains the “transition” of our traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.

Commissioner Yuan Longping submitted the proposal on “Recommendations on Grain Price” this year. According to the statistics from the Hunan Provincial Price Bureau, due to the increase in production costs, in 2011, the income of farmers planting one acre of rice was only 116.6 yuan, excluding 109.1 yuan of national grain. Subsidies, farmers' net income per mu is only 7.5 yuan.

Yuan Longping’s statement was recognized by Zhou Tingfu, a farmer from Jilin. He said: "The income from planting an acre of paddy field is not as much as that of ordinary bricklayers who have worked for three days."

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the total number of migrant workers in China exceeded 250 million in 2011. There are 40 million leftovers in the country and farming has become a “sideline business”.

In addition to the "old age, sideline" hidden concern, as one of the symbols of modern agriculture, the development of China's agricultural insurance is also very slow.

“At present, the capping of insurance against agricultural insurance is not sufficient to protect farmers' reproductive capacity.” Representative Hao Fuxia from Jilin believes that agricultural insurance is difficult to develop in the “policy” and “commercial” relationship, and the catastrophe risk prevention mechanism has not yet been truly established.

“Investment hot, enclosure wind”: How to hold the “red line” of 1.8 billion mu?

“In the case of agriculture, it is better to grasp industry than to grasp industry rather than to develop real estate...” Under the concept of traditional achievements, “the most important” agriculture has left only slogans in some places.

Some representative committee members quoted data from relevant departments that the area of ​​cultivated land in China had decreased to 1.826 billion mu in 2010, a decrease of 123 million mu compared with 1997. The 1.8 billion mu "red line" is close to the "critical interval."

"The problem is that there has been no change in the impulse of some places," said Zhao Zhihai and other representatives. According to the materials provided by the Liaoning Provincial Department of Land and Resources, Liaoning's reserve resources for cultivated land are only enough to support the “repair balance” in 3-4 years.

“Seeing the fertile black land occupied by the projects one by one, I also feel sad.” Li Guoqiang, secretary of the Yushu Municipal Party Committee of Jilin Province, the national grain-producing county, frankly stated, “Food has almost no contribution to finance. This is a contradiction in development. Helpless."

Zhao Zhihai’s representative believes that the stabilization of grain production capacity will occupy an area, and the promotion of industrialization and urbanization will also occupy land, and the contradiction is very sharp. In the future, how to pursue coordinated development in industrialization, urbanization, and the “threeizations” of agricultural modernization will test the wisdom of the government.

"The coordination of the 'threeizations' is good, that is, 'the light boat has passed the Wanzhong Mountain'; if the solution is not good, our modernization may have tortuous!" said Liu Chengming, a representative from Sichuan, who said with worries.

Member Yuan Longping said: “Food is the treasure of Baozhong, and food prices are the base of 100 prices.” Whether China's grain “eight-plus-year increase” can continue, whether the “red line” of 1.8 billion mu can be maintained, and it is related to the stability of China’s economy. Make progress in the overall situation.