Summer grain purchase increases the risk of rising food prices

Our country has overcome this year's severe drought in the winter and spring droughts, and the summer grain production has achieved a bumper harvest. However, the summer grain purchase progress has been slow. The “Economic Information Daily” reporter recently learned from interviews in major wheat producing areas such as Shandong, Henan, and Anhui that although the purchase price of grain was higher than the minimum purchase price set by the country after the harvest, the farmers paid more for the grain, and the food price was higher. It is still not enough to balance the cost. Farmers are eager to sell for price, and they are reluctant to sell. At the same time, because the country has not started the procurement, the enthusiasm of the grain purchasing and storage enterprises is not high.

People in the industry believe that food can not be purchased in large quantities into the state-owned grain warehouses, which will affect the state's ability to regulate and control the food market and increase the risk of further increases in food prices.

The actual acquisition volume was only one tenth of the previous year. The agent, Zhou Ping, spoke of this year's acquisition and he shook his head - "Not good, not good." He said that last year he was able to receive a car of wheat for one day, but this year It will be nice to receive a car in two days.

Huaibei City is the main wheat producing area in Anhui Province. This year, the city has overcome the severe meteorological drought once in 60 years. Wheat production has achieved “eight years of abundance”, and the city’s total wheat output has reached more than 1.1 million tons. However, unlike previous years, the acquisition after the wheat harvest was "cold."

According to data from the Grain Bureau of Huaibei City, the current wheat product volume in Huaibei City is about 60%, which is 660,000 tons of commodity wheat. As of July 31, various entities, including Chinese grain reserves, state-owned grain enterprises, and social processing companies, purchased a total of 315,000 tons of wheat, accounting for less than 50% of wheat products.

Baishan Town, Suixi County, Huaibei City is a famous wheat production area in the area and a gathering place for grain processing enterprises. In the past, when the acquisition season came here, companies and hawkers had acquired signboards, and many processing companies lined up with long-selling food trucks. However, this year, it is hard to win this sight. At the grain station in the center of Baishan Town, the large grain station was empty and there was no one for food trucks. Chen Hua, director of the grain station of the Baishan Town Center, told reporters that due to the fact that the market was not started and farmers were reluctant to sell, the grain station currently only received 2,000 tons of grain, “the acquisition is now stopped.”

In Bashan Town Luwang Flour Co., Ltd., the reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" met with Zhou Ping, a broker who came to sell grain. He talked about this year's acquisition of him and he shook his head -- "Not good, not good." Said that last year he could receive a car of wheat one day, but it would be nice to receive one car in two days this year. And in addition to large processing companies, many companies do not receive any food. Fan Chung-tung, the person in charge of Luwang Company, told reporters that in the past, the company’s highest-ever acquisition amounted to more than 3 million kilograms, but this year’s highest purchase volume was only half of 150 million kilograms. "These days have passed the peak of acquisition, and the acquisition volume is only 300,000-500,000 jin per day. The operating rate is not enough." Fan Chundong said that many processing companies are now waiting and watching, using a little bit of processing, not as active as last year. Acquisition.

In an individual food acquisition site 500 meters south of Huangshikou Station in Huanglin Expressway, Henan Province, the owner, Mr. Ding, told reporters that he had started to purchase wheat from the end of June. As of now, only a total of 30 thousand kilograms have been received. In the past week's acquisitions, he was prepared not to take another two days. Because the state grain bank did not open the door (acquisition) this year, the flour mill was under tight funding and the volume of acquisition was not large. In previous years, a few cars were sold immediately and the funds were quickly returned. This year, the trustee market did not start the acquisition, the Agricultural Development Bank did not release loans, the amount of funds required for grain purchases was large, the recovery cycle was long, and there was no loan support from the Agricultural Development Bank.

According to Zhao Yongjun, director of the Inner Mongolia County Grain Bureau, as a traditional agricultural county, the annual purchase of wheat in Neihuang County is generally around 200 million jins, but as of the end of July this year, various acquisition entities have been added together, and the actual acquisition volume is only 2,000. About 10,000 kilograms is equivalent to only one tenth of previous years. He said that the reason why the wheat purchase market was deserted this year was mainly because the country did not start purchasing the market. In order to ease the difficulties of farmers selling grain, the grain department thought many ways, in addition to multi-party contact for foreign merchants to buy more trade grain, but also use food The advantages of the system's warehousing, help farmers to store grain, all kinds of ways can think of it.

This year, the total output of Henan summer grain is 62.63 billion jins, an increase of 8.2 billion jins over the previous year. The total output of wheat was 62.46 billion jins, an increase of 8.2 billion jins over the previous year, an increase of 1.3%. The province’s summer grain and wheat have set a record high for nine consecutive years. However, according to Henan Province Grain Bureau statistics, as of July 31, the province purchased a total of 18.1 billion kilograms of new wheat in 2011, accounting for only 28% of this year's wheat production, a decrease of 20.2 billion kilograms from the same period of last year.

"Sold a deficiencies, do not sell and fear loss"

Sun Junhua said: "After all kinds of expenses add up, the cost of wheat this year is more than 100 yuan higher than last year. Although the price of wheat this year is a few cents higher than last year, the net income of the people has dropped. Now everyone hopes that the wheat price can reach 1.1 yuan. This will ensure that it will be similar to last year's revenue."

For peasants, this year's summer harvest is not always a source of joy. According to an interview with the “Economic Information Daily” reporter, the cost of planting wheat has increased this year. Farmers are reluctant to sell and have a serious psychological problem. Fear of loss, a dilemma.

Liu Qinhui, a peasant in Jiaxiang County, Jining City, Shandong Province, planted 15 mu of wheat this year and harvested and dried about 16,000 kilos of wheat. He told reporters that in addition to removing 1000 pounds for rations, the rest are commodity grains. However, the current price is not high and will not be sold in the near future.

A reporter from the "Economic Information Daily" interview learned that although the opening price of wheat this year is about 0.05 yuan higher than last year, it still does not reach the psychological expectations of farmers. Liu Qinhui said that this year, Shandong suffered a major drought, and many fields generally poured one or two more times of water. Even if they counted on the 10 yuan per mu subsidy issued by the state, the cost would still increase a lot. If it is used to pour water into wells, the cost per acre will increase by 70 to 80 yuan. Even if you use river water, the cost will increase by 40 to 50 yuan. If you count the labor spent on watering, the added cost is even higher.

In addition to the increase in the cost of pouring land, the cost of agricultural resources is also increasing. Sun Junhua, a peasant in Sunyang Township, Jiyang County, Jinan City, said that the newly harvested wheat has increased fertilizer costs by 50 yuan per mu, pesticides by 10 yuan, and harvesting fees by 10 yuan. Sun Junhua said: "After all kinds of expenses add up, the cost of wheat this year is more than 100 yuan higher than last year. Although the price of wheat this year is a few cents higher than last year, the net income has dropped. Now everyone hopes that the wheat price can reach more than 1.1 yuan. Only in this way can we guarantee the same income as last year."

Li Hailiang, a peasant in Rucheng County, Heze City, has 7 acres of land and grows wheat and corn crops all year round. This year, more than 8,000 kilos of wheat were harvested. The “Economic Information Daily” reporter saw that he used more than twenty knits filled with wheat. The bag surrounded the wall in a half-circle with wheat in bulk. In order to prevent moisture, he also used wooden boards and plastic sheets to cover the floor two layers.

Li Hailiang told reporters that the people’s food storage conditions are generally very simple. Woven bags, sacks, wooden cabinets, ceramic jars, and blankets can all be used to store grain, and some are directly stacked on the floor of the room, often because of the humidity. Some food mildew. He said afterwards that his family’s 8,000 kilos of wheat will lose 416 yuan in light loss if they are at a loss rate of 5%, at a market price of 1.04 yuan/kg, “equivalent to half an acre of wheat”!

Li Hailiang said: "Now the price is not too high. If you sell it, your mentality will certainly be uncomfortable, but you will lose it if you don't sell it, and you will eventually lose out."

The lack of funds is the biggest difficulty in acquiring a company. “For grain purchasing and selling companies, grasping grain sources is the top priority. Without food, it is basically equivalent to being excluded from the market. Now the problem facing the company is that the acquisition has no money and it will not be collected. No food source."

Reluctance for farmers to sell is corresponding to the state-owned grain bank and individual, private grain companies lack of funds, loans nowhere, but also in a dilemma that would not be able to collect.

The Jinsui Grain Purchase and Sales Center of Jiaxiang County, Jining City, Shandong Province, is a subordinate enterprise of the Jiaxiang County Grain Bureau, and it is also a repository for the storage of grain in China. Fan Xianfu, deputy head of Jintun Station of the buying and selling center, told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter that this year's wheat purchase progress was obviously slow. The center has a total storage capacity of 23 million kilograms, but it has only acquired 3 million kilograms, which is equivalent to only about 30% of the same period last year.

Fan Xianfu said that this year's state procurement policy has not started and the central funding is very tight. The wheat that is currently being acquired is collected for an agriculture-related company in the south and the funds are provided by the company. "We often hear complaints from the people about why the price of the acquisition is so low. I can only tell him that it will be very good. If it is not linked to this enterprise in the south, the center has no funds at all, and there is no way to collect it."

A person in charge of a private grain purchasing company in Rucheng County, Shandong Province, told reporters that due to the fact that grain belongs to bulk agricultural products, the acquisition requires large sums of money. At present, the lack of acquisition funds is the biggest difficulty in acquiring companies.

Liaocheng Gaotang County General Manager Wang Jiangjiang Jiangdian Grain Purchase and Sale Co., Ltd. told reporters that several shareholders of the company have tried every possible means to collect 70,800,000 yuan of funds. Even if all of them are used out, they can only purchase more than 70,000 kilograms of wheat, which is only equivalent to company storage capacity. One tenth. He said: "The serious shortage of acquisition funds has obviously limited the company's progress in the acquisition. The company has a strong desire for loans, but it can't get loans at all."

Wang Jinjiang said: “For grain purchasing and selling companies, grasping grain sources is the top priority. Without grain, it is basically equivalent to being excluded from the market. Now the problem facing the company is that the acquisition has no money and no grain sources. ”

Li Changxuan, general manager of China Grain Reserve Henan Branch, said that the country's grasp of certain food sources is the basis for macroeconomic regulation and control, and the market price is suppressed when the food prices rise sharply and rapidly. He believes that this year's soaring corn prices are related to the country’s lack of adequate food sources and lack of market regulation measures.

According to the price monitoring and market survey conducted by the China Grain Network, the price of wheat in most areas of the country is higher than the purchase price of the city. The price of white wheat produced in the main producing areas in 2011 is between 0.95-1.07 yuan/kg, and the price of mixed wheat is 0.93-1.03 yuan. / Jin, red wheat price is 1-1.04 yuan / kg, is still higher than the state's minimum purchase price of white wheat 0.95 yuan / kg, mixed wheat and red wheat 0.93 yuan / kg, the vast majority of regional procurement is difficult to start the acquisition.

According to Ma Wenfeng, an economist at East Iger Agricultural Consulting Co., the current summer grain purchase is also a “difficulties” for state regulation. At present, the price of wheat in the main producing areas is still higher than the market price. If state-owned grain traders who undertake policy-related control tasks cannot acquire sufficient food, they will certainly have an impact on national regulation and control capabilities. However, if prices are increased, it may raise the overall price level, which is not conducive to macroeconomic management.

Temporary purchasing and storage policies should be introduced to “stirring” acquisitions to introduce temporary purchasing and storage policies, focusing on “inciting” market acquisitions, while not significantly raising farmers’ psychological expectations while protecting the interests of farmers. Once the wheat purchase progress exceeds the normal range and the price rises quickly, temporary purchases can be stopped.

The reporter of the "Economic Information Daily" learned that the reasons for this sobering grain purchase market this year were mainly due to the fact that there was no start of the five-year procurement of the city this year. Since 2006, the country has increased the wheat market prices year by year, and has started to raise the city's purchase price for five consecutive years, so that farmers and the market gradually formed the inertia expectation of the continuous rise of wheat prices. In particular, last year, affected by the expected price increase, many parties actively entered the market to compete for food sources, causing wheat prices to rise in some areas. This year, the state has adjusted the policy of the city, from the unified start of the province to the county as the unit. When the grain price is lower than the market price for three consecutive days, it is reported by the county as a unit, and finally by China National Grain Storage Corporation. Approve start.

Su Jun, director of the Grain Bureau of Huaibei City, said that monitoring market prices were lower than the minimum purchase price for three consecutive days, the relevant departments confirmed and approved, and the approval of China National Grain Reserve Corporation had many links and long periods of time. The start-up procedure was complicated. Although during the summer harvest, a number of major wheat producing areas in northern Hebei jointly applied for start-ups to buy the city, they did not receive confirmation of the grain reserves.

The grass-roots grain department and some processing companies believe that, objectively speaking, this year's trustee market purchase has not been started, which has stabilized the grain purchase market to a certain extent and eliminated the situation in which multi-party market players entered the market for grain rush last year. Since the opening of the pounds on June 5 this year, the purchase price of wheat has shown a trend of opening up and stabilizing. Recently, the price of wheat in some regions has gradually declined, and the price has stabilized at 0.98-1.00 yuan/kg. In general, the wheat purchase market this year has been stable and orderly, and the various types of acquisition entities have become more rational, and there has been no phenomenon of looting grain. However, while the market price is stable, the lightness of the acquisition market and the lower-than-expected prices also make the people reluctant to sell their goods, and they worry that the decrease in income will have a negative effect on stabilizing farmers' enthusiasm for grain production.

A survey conducted by the grain department of Huaibei City showed that in 2011, the cost of grain for farmers increased by 155 yuan per mu compared with the previous year, of which drought increased cost by 75 yuan, fertilizer increased by 60 yuan, and pesticide and labor costs increased by about 40 yuan. Harvesting costs are reduced by 20 yuan. Affected by this, this year's grain revenue is reduced by 144 yuan per mu compared with the previous year.

In the interview, some people in the industry believed that since the country’s annual minimum purchase price was announced before the food production, when the cost of food production plus reasonable profits were higher than the minimum purchase price and market price, the state should promptly initiate the temporary reserve acquisition. In particular, due to the severe drought this year, the cost of grain production for farmers has been greatly increased. The current market price is far below the farmers' psychological expectations. The enthusiasm of farmers for grain production has been severely frustrated. It is recommended that the State initiate the purchase policy measures for this year's temporary reserves as soon as possible to increase farmers' income and protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.

Ma Wenfeng, an economist at East Iger Agricultural Consulting Co., Ltd., said that the introduction of a temporary purchase and storage policy focuses on “stimulating” market purchases, and at the same time protecting the interests of farmers, it does not significantly raise the peasants’ psychological expectations. Once the wheat purchase progress exceeds the normal range and the price rises quickly, temporary purchases can be stopped. Ma Wenfeng believes that the introduction of temporary storage can break the market stalemate as soon as possible in a short period of time. The downside is that even if it raises the price of temporary purchases and storage, it is still possible to raise the market price quickly, which will affect the stability of the overall price level.