Soybean industry internal and diplomatic difficulties: domestic production is less foreign

From the time when the domestically produced new beans were listed, the reporters follow the inspection group of the Dalian Commodity Exchange on September 17 to understand the soybean production situation this year, press the survival status of the enterprises, and the opinions and expectations of the people in the industry. - On the 20th, the soybean production areas of Harbin, Wangkui, Keshan and Nehe in Northeast China were investigated.

Many parties told reporters that domestic soybeans are expected to open at high prices this year. Wang Xiaoyu, deputy secretary-general of the Heilongjiang Soybean Association, gave an intuitive number: In late October, the latest opening price for Heilongjiang-made soybeans (ie, the price for soybeans to be launched on a centralized basis) is expected to be between 2.2 and 2.3 yuan per kilogram, which is higher than last year. The premium is 0.2 yuan higher than that of the previous year, which is about 10%. It is estimated that soybean production will be reduced by about 30% this year and the total area will be about 36 million mu. The output will be less than 4 million tons.

He Shuwen, a farmer, conveyed to reporters his joy in harvesting. He was quite confident about the price of soybeans: “Although at present, the yield of corn is higher than that of soybeans, I am optimistic about the price of beans and will stick to beans.”

However, crushing companies that use domestic soybeans as their main raw material are worried. Many of the interviewed Heilongjiang local crushing companies are in charge of persuading. They frankly stated that in the side of soybean pricing power, the State reserve price has risen steadily, and the “beanless” situation caused by the reduction of domestic soybean production has caused crushing companies to suffer from the impact and face the “crushed” fate.

A serious shortage of capacity utilization squeezed corporate policy calls for support <br> <br> as of September 18, the country's soybean crushers in major regional average operation rate of around 50% over the same period has gone up from last month, but much lower than last year About 60% of the operating rate over the same period.

From the perspective of current linkage, the future soybean price rise is a foregone conclusion. Shi Yan, director of the Xinhu Futures Institute, believes that this is mainly based on two points: First, this year, the overall soybean market price is bullish; Second, the national purchasing and storage price is 4500-4600. The yuan / ton under the support, the soybean market price should be around 2.3 yuan per kg.

The research report data of this institution is basically in line with the field survey data of the journalists. That is, this year, soybean production will be reduced by 30%, which will promote the increase of soybean prices. However, in his view, “The price per pound of 2.3 yuan is still too low. In Heilongjiang, the soybean price is 2.5 to 3 times that of corn in order to maintain the balance of income and guide farmers to grow soybeans.” Shrinking.

According to public data, as of August, the domestic five-liter packaging soybean oil, rapeseed oil and peanut oil had risen within 1.52%, 5.77% and 13.17% respectively during the year. However, local crushing enterprises in Heilongjiang have continued to sigh. The reporter interviewed three heads of local crushing plants using domestically produced soybeans as raw materials. “Very average” and “Okay” are considered more optimistic answers. The more extreme view is that “a strong soybean price and subsidy policies are not in place for a long time. With the improvement, Heilongjiang crushing companies will lose a large number of them." The problems reflected by enterprises are mainly concentrated on: the purchase price of enterprises competes only with the State Reserve, and “beanless cooking” has become commonplace.

Call for subsidies to become the common voice of every link in the soybean industry chain. Northeastern people who are naturally close to the land want to retain not only profits, but also the desire to retain the last pure land of non-genetically modified soybeans.

When the reporter visited a local crushing company, he found that some plants were deserted and there were scattered workers in the workshop and there was no sign of starting work. The person in charge of the plant said that renovations have been underway recently. This situation is not unique to this company. Profitability is difficult to maintain, and many companies are not feeling high.

Liu Baolin, general manager of HIT, told reporters that since July, the basic production has been fully realized. The purchase price before July is lower than the current price, so the start-up companies are currently "profitable and the overall profitability is still worthwhile". However, he said that the overall situation in the market is not good and the oil price has not reached the psychological expectation. If soybeans are purchased at current prices, they will be processed at a loss. Since the end of last year, China has held soy auctions every two weeks. Due to rising import prices, the number of bids soared in May this year. On September 13, the auction price was about 5,000 yuan per ton, with a quantity of 400,000 tons. Now that the market is not good, the squeezed oil can't sell well. “The turning point in July was due to the fact that this round of soybean growth has a certain lag behind soybean meal, and soybeans have seen a large increase,” the source said.

Song Shengbin, chairman of Longjiang Fuel Factory, used “very general” to describe the operating rate and profitability. He said that the most important factor restricting start-up is the acquisition. The purchase price of the State Reserve has been rising. The cost of raw materials for enterprises has risen. Soybean farmers have been reluctant to sell and are sold to the State Reserve. The enterprise has no beans to accept, and even if it starts, it must also be responsible for losses. Therefore, The operating rate and profitability will not be significantly improved.

Liu Zailin, general manager of Hongyuan Oil Plant, said more aggressively that if the state reserve price only goes up and down, the status quo of the enterprise will be upgraded. In extreme circumstances, most of the crushing enterprises in Heilongjiang will close down. Although the increase in raw materials can be offset by the increase in the price of soybean oil and soybean meal products, the increase in soybean oil and soybean meal cannot offset the direct impact of rising soybean raw materials on companies. In addition, some data are still very worrying. Take the oil plant as an example: The four quarters have only started in three months. The main reason is that there is no way to compete with the State Reserve Price on the purchase price. Therefore, it is hoped that there will be more policy concessions, and subsidies are the most direct. Subsidies in the whole soybean industry chain can save many companies.

In terms of policy, Wang Xiaoyu revealed that although the demand for soybean crushing in China accounted for 82.9% of the domestic soybean consumption and the demand gap was above 40 million tons, due to the strong substitution of imported soybeans in the crushing sector, domestic soybeans are gradually being expelled. Out of the oil market. Coupled with the soaring domestic soybean production costs, countries that protect the interests of soybean farmers have implemented temporary purchase and storage policies, which have raised domestic soybean prices and accelerated the pace of domestic soybean withdrawal from the oil extraction market.

In addition, from the perspective of protecting non-genetically modified soybeans and protecting the last pure land of Heilongjiang non-genetically modified soybeans, the government should consider introducing more industrial support policies. "In addition to the state grants to the State Reserve, it is also possible to consider setting up a special support fund," he said.

The Galaxy Futures public research report shows that Jiuzhai Oil & Grease Group, a leading domestic soybean processing company, currently has an overall operating rate of approximately 5 percentage points higher than that of the September 10 week, which is approximately 54%. There are three in Heilongjiang Province. Branch plant shutdown, and the coastal plant's operating rate can reach 100%. Most of the local oil companies in Heilongjiang surveyed by the reporter will have 1 to 4 ships of soybeans to the plant in September. The production line that is currently shutting down will resume production.

According to the survey, as of September 18, the operating rate of soybean crushing enterprises in major regions of the country averaged about 50%, which was up from the same period of last month, but far lower than the operating rate of about 60% in the same period of last year. Therefore, in the late soybeans to Hong Kong far below the level of the same period, domestic stocks digest a serious situation, the operating rate is likely to fall again, and the fourth quarter is the domestic consumer season of oil pans, when the beans market is expected to support this upward.

Domestic soybean bullied inside and outside Breakthrough Under Way <br> <br> 80% of imported beans situation, mention domestic beans regain the right to speak pricing becomes less realistic. Domestically produced beans do not have as much oil as imported soybeans in terms of crushing, and the main direction for future development should be food concepts and non-GM.

The predicament faced by Heilongjiang crushing enterprises is closely related to the status of the entire domestic soybean market lacking pricing power. Intestinal bean invasion has seriously eroded the living space of traditional soybeans.

Public statistics show that since 1996, China has begun to import soybeans, and imports have increased by 10 million tons every four years. From January to July this year, China imported 34.92 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 20.1% over the same period of last year; the import amount was 19.562 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.8% over the same period of last year. Although the volume of imports in August has shrunk significantly from the previous month, the total annual import volume is still expected to be around 54 million tons.

A large number of imports not only directly inhibited the domestic soybean production, but more seriously, the supply of raw materials, processing, and related feed and food industries have been basically controlled by foreign investment. Industry insiders warned that the monopoly of the international giants poses a real threat to the soybean industry in China and to the strategic safety of feed and edible oil. The external dependence of soybeans and edible oil has reached more than 60%, exceeding the security warning line.

Domestic soybeans have been trapped in production and loss of pricing power. Among these, there are market-oriented options for planting and processing subjects, which are also affected by relevant policy adjustments.

For example: When planting 300 mu of soybean per mu, the price per mu is calculated as 2.3 yuan, and the income per mu is more than 600 yuan; the relative density of corn is much higher, and the mu yield is generally over 1000 kg, and the highest energy is 1400 kg. According to the market price, the income per mu is more than 1,000 yuan. Although the cost of corn planting is more than 100 yuan higher than soybeans per acre, the overall return is very significant.

Regarding how domestic soybeans stand out, many industry players mentioned the subsidy policy. However, according to Nie Fengying, researcher of the Information Center of the Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the unilateral subsidy policy is not enough to save the soybean industry. “Protecting domestic soybeans requires a package agreement and further research. We support research and development, and we have policies and inputs for a series of links such as seeds, agricultural machinery, cultivation, fertilizers, pesticides, harvesting, and processing.”

She said that it is not only soybeans but the entire food industry that should receive attention. "ABCD" (taken from four major multinational grain companies: ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus initials) The ratio of soybeans permeating domestic soybeans has increased year by year. If foreign capital is only soybeans, it is not the most serious problem. If the overall dependency of the food system is unacceptably high, the issue of national food security is very prominent.

"Admittedly, ABCD' brings advanced management, management, and corporate culture. Chinese companies have learned a lot. The problem that cannot be overlooked is that large multinational corporations purchase grain at a price that is 5 cents more than the market price and 1 cent. However, contracts are signed with companies that use their products from seed industry, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. The entire industry chain is tied up with the control of processing faucets.” The probability of this extreme situation is not very high, but it must guard against the excessive use of multinational companies. Expansion will be late if it comes to "What do people give you, what can you use?"

Nie Fengying said that soybeans were exposed to the air and were forced to corner by the corn. From the field survey, it can also be reflected that the area and enthusiasm of farmers in Heihe City to grow corn is higher than that of planting soybeans.

Shi Yan has clearly put forward the roadmap of “emphasizing the encirclement and encirclement”. “With 80% of the imported beans, it is unrealistic to mention that the domestic beans will regain the pricing power. The whole pattern cannot be changed. The domestic beans are being squeezed. There is indeed an advantage that the oil yield is not as good as that of imported soybeans. The future direction of the main attack should be food concepts and non-genetically modified, so that we can go further."

Improve the safe-haven ability to squeeze the company to "reign in the wild"

For growers and enterprises, it is imperative to make better use of the futures market to avoid risks and improve their overall competitiveness.

The penetration of foreign capital has led to the control of the whole soybean industry chain of China's soybeans. With capital entry, it has fully grasped the dominant position in all aspects of cultivation, processing, and equipment, and has no need to elaborate on the risks posed by the nation's food and food products. Against this background, it is imperative for growers and companies to make better use of the futures market to avoid risks and improve their overall competitiveness.

According to industry sources, from the current situation, the crushing enterprises that walk on both the futures and the spot are more comfortable. The enterprises participating in futures hedging have a relatively good profit, and the crushing companies that do not participate in hedging are relatively serious losses. Only by raising the level of risk management can the enterprises be able to “get out of the wilderness”.

However, Sun Minglei, director of the South China Futures North R&D Center, said that private crush companies in the north have not been highly aware of hedging. This is mainly related to the fact that policies in various aspects have not yet been completely streamlined. Enterprises have certain difficulties in the quality control, transportation, and financing of soybeans. In contrast, some large enterprises in the south have more experience in avoiding risks. Zhang Ruming, manager of Dalian Liangyun Futures R&D Department, also holds a similar view. As for the multinational companies, the level of risk management and the price level are even higher.

Sun Minglei also pointed out that due to the country’s minimum purchase price, farmers and cooperatives are also very active in hedging.

In the investigation, the relevant person in charge of the Dashang Group used a number of vivid cases to explain the hedging function of hedging in discussions with farmers, cooperatives, and local companies. The person in charge said that pursuing account opening is not a goal. Use futures prices to guide farmers to sell agricultural products and let them make money. At the same time, through this interaction, it is even more important for farmers to pay more attention to futures prices, increase the influence of Dalian's prices, and strive for more domestic agricultural product price discourse.

Dashang's “Thousands of Villages and Ten Thousand Households Market Service Project” lasted more than seven years and played a significant role in promoting information to the countryside. When visiting Wangkui, Heihe and other places, Dashang cooperated with industry associations and cooperatives to send information to farmers in a variety of ways to guide farmers to rationally arrange grain production and management, and to transform from grain producers to grain managers. In the words of Wang Weiguo, a farmer from the Nehe River in Heilongjiang Province, he said, “Looking at the futures to make a spot and leave the computer brain is a blank.” Now he is a special writer for the Breck Agricultural Information Website. His biggest wish is to use his own unique wave theory. Serving Heilongjiang bean farmers.

Changes in the farming practices of individual farmers, individual cooperatives, and even individual regions may not cause market fluctuations at all, but once the policy of top-down transmission of policies is smoother, the farmers’ habit of selling grain will directly affect the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and they will be in stock. The price of futures is reflected. This is no longer an individual issue, but a powerful boost to the inertial growth of the soybean industry chain. From this perspective, the domestic soybean crushing enterprises are actively plunging into futures hedging in addition to appealing for policy support, and are more proficient in using this measure, which may also be a sensible way to get rid of the current operational and production difficulties.