Thirty-seven high prices would have difficulty adjourned

In the second half of 2009, starting from the price of 65 yuan (kilogram price, 120 yuan, the same below), the highest price in May 2012 rose to about 760 yuan. The high price effect for three years in a row has led downstream production companies to make corresponding production adjustments and the demand has dropped significantly.

Although the current impact of new production prices began to fall, but Panax prices are still higher than 500 yuan. Will the end of the three-year production this year end the high price for many years? How far can the high price market go?

High demand greatly reduced in recent years <br> <br> thirty-seven is a traditional Chinese herbal medicines, one of forty kinds of bulk herbs species, since ancient times "hemostatic magic pill" reputation at home and abroad prestigious. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 300 varieties of proprietary Chinese medicines used as raw materials in China, and more than 1,000 manufacturers, covering almost all Chinese medicine pharmaceutical companies, such as compound Danshen Dripping Pills, Danshen tablets, Yunnan Baiyao, Pien Tze Huang and other well-known Chinese medicines. All three of them are the main raw materials. At the same time, there are a variety of dosage forms such as Sanqi injury pill, Sanqi honey essence wine, Panax notoginseng wine, Sanqi hemostasis film, Sanqi injury film, Sanqi injury medicine powder, Sanqi capsule, and compound Sanqi oral liquid. The main raw material of Chinese medicine.

In 2006, Panax dropped to over 45-55 yuan due to overproduction prices from the one hundred yuan in 2005, and the low price continued until 2008. The low prices for three years have dampened the incentives for the cultivation of drug-agriculture farmers, and the planting area has been significantly reduced.

The growth cycle of Panax pseudoginsis is 3 years. The planting area was reduced for 3 consecutive years from 2006 to 2008, resulting in a decline in new production from 2009 to 2011. In 2009, the output of new goods in March decreased significantly. Driven by the actual market demand and active purchases by many businesses, the price rose strongly, rising from around RMB 65 at the beginning of the year to RMB 95 in a short period of time. Break through the hundred-mark mark. Entering October 3, 2009, the price has accelerated and it has risen to around 230 yuan by the end of the year. The drought in 2010 in the Yunnan producing areas further pushed up the prices of March and July, and it soared to 510 yuan by April 37, becoming a shining star in the pharmaceutical market.

In 2009, total production of Panax notoginseng was about 4500 tons; in 2010, the area of ​​Sanchi 7 was about 22,000 acres, and the total output was about 3500-4000 tons. In the year of 2007, the market demand was about 6,000 tons, but in recent years, due to high prices, market demand will decline in different ranges. In 2011, the area of ​​excavation was 28,000 mu and the total output was between 5000 and 5,500 tons.

As prices have risen so much in recent years, the Xueshuantong series has suffered from losses in almost all of its products except Xuesaitong powder injection companies, which have certain profitability in addition to Xueshuantong Dripping Pills and Xueshuantong soft capsules. In order to overcome the difficulties, the manufacturers had to reduce production. The compound Danshen series products are also not optimistic, in addition to the compound Danshen Dripping Pill stubborn profit, the other traditional compound Danshen tablets price inversion phenomenon is very serious, some companies have stopped production. Due to the impact of the high price of 37 in recent years, the social demand of March 7 has been greatly reduced.

High-priced end of the market is about to <br> <br> although since 2009 thirty-seven tight supply and demand has been evident, but because a few years ago a large backlog of inventory, as well as high prices suppress the actual market demand, short-term supply and demand do not see thirty-seven gap. The splendid price of today’s March 7 has not only been caused by the reduction of many years of low-cost planting areas, but also influenced by the objective facts such as the production of dry weather, and the artificial reluctance to sell has also played a role in fueling the situation.

As prices have continued to rise in recent years, they have greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers and farmers. From 2010 to 2011, the area planted in Sanqi is larger, and the growth cycle of Panax pseudoginsis is 3 years. In other words, by the year of 2012, the output of Sanqi will begin to increase substantially, and the price will gradually decline. According to statistics on the origin of Yunnan Province, this year Yunnan Sanqi planted an area of ​​about 16 million mu, of which about 50,000 mu of excavation area, according to 170 kg per mu, it is estimated that total production of Panax could reach 8,500 tons. In accordance with the 6,000 tons of demand in 37 years, there has been an overproduction. It can be foreseen that after a large number of new products are introduced on March and July this year, the downward trend in prices will be strong. And next year, the planting area of ​​Yunnan Sanqi is expected to reach more than 280,000 mu, of which more than 90,000 mu will be harvested and the total output will exceed 15,000 tons. In 2014, the harvest area of ​​Sanchi is estimated to be about 120,000 mu, and the production capacity will also reach 18,000 tons or more. The oversupply is set.

According to a comprehensive analysis, after the new products are produced on March and July this year, they will gradually fall from high prices and will end the high prices for more than 37 years. However, due to increased production costs of Panax pseudoginsis and the inertia of stocks and high prices, this year's prices will not drop too much and will continue to operate at medium-to-high prices. It is not even possible to rule out a rebound that will trigger a low rebound. The above high prices may have been difficult.