Food industry chain breaks down

A few days ago, there were media reports on the Internet that China might become the world's largest importer of rice in 2013, which has aroused the attention of many people. In fact, in recent years, China’s rapid growth in grain imports has been deeply concerned by all parties. In 2012, China’s total grain imports exceeded 70 million tons, making China the largest importer of grain in history. From the data in the first half of 2013, the growth trend of grain imports continues.

In view of the current situation, experts told reporters on the half-monthly that in the short term, the imported grain can relieve the food supply in China to a certain extent and relieve the pressure on resources such as land and fresh water. However, in the long run, the increase in grain imports will inevitably have an impact on China's agriculture. The government needs to increase investment in agriculture to stabilize domestic grain cultivation, and even protect vulnerable agriculture through tariffs and other means.

Grain imports show an "irreversible" upward trend

China's grain has fully entered the era of "net import". Soybeans, wheat, corn and rice have maintained a net import trend this year. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, imports of soybeans reached 8.3228 million tons in Hong Kong in June 2013, which is the highest monthly level. At the same time, grain imports also increased significantly. From January to April, imports of rice and rice were 1 million tons, which represented a year-on-year increase. 83.6%.

In fact, China's grain imports have been rising rapidly in recent years, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries is also increasing. "According to the calculation of China's grain, including grain, beans, and potato caliber, 72.37 million tons of grain were imported in 2012, which accounted for 10.9% of the newly added food supply (the total grain output + grain imports + soybean imports), indicating that China The self-sufficiency ratio of grain has fallen below 90%, said Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

This situation seems to show an "irreversible" situation. Data show that before 2003, China’s agricultural products basically exceeded the scale of imports, and the international trade surplus of agricultural products ranged from US$2 billion to US$6 billion. By 2004, the import value of China's agricultural products reached 28.13 billion U.S. dollars, and the agricultural trade deficit reached 5.04 billion U.S. dollars. By 2012, China’s agricultural product trade deficit was 49.19 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly 10 times in eight years.

Imports surged due to domestic and foreign price spreads and the industrial chain collapsed

According to industry sources, although the growth in demand has driven the increase in the net import value of staple agricultural products such as food, the biggest driving force behind the "net import" of grain comes from the power at the benefit level - the price gap between agricultural products at home and abroad is still widening and there are some agricultural products. Imports are not due to domestic shortages, but mainly due to price reasons.

"Internal and foreign price spreads are one of the main reasons for the surge in food imports." Many industry experts think so. The price of some imported crops was lower than the price of domestic products. At the same time, due to the related tariffs being too low, they could not play the role of protecting domestic agricultural products. As a result, a large number of imported agricultural products were flooded into the Chinese market.

Professor Wang Wei of Shandong University of Finance said that because foreign food is relatively cheap, the market will naturally choose foreign food, food imports will increase, food prices in the domestic market will not go up, and the government’s enthusiasm for increasing food prices will also decrease. This poses a threat to the income of farmers.

According to experts, due to the increase in demand and the implementation of a protective collection and storage policy for some agricultural products in China, the current foreign food prices are generally lower than those in China. "The scale of domestic agriculture and peasant households is relatively small, and the prices of production materials, labor, land, and other factors have risen relatively quickly in recent years, resulting in higher domestic prices than in foreign countries," said Wang Wei.

The reporter learned from the interview that the increase in imported grain, while ensuring domestic supply, does have a significant impact on the industrial chain of some agricultural products in China.

Taking rice as an example, China's natural annual import volume reached 4 million to 5 million tons, and rice enterprises in Hunan and Jiangxi have suffered. According to the owner of a Hunan rice factory, imported rice from Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar is priced at 172 yuan per 50 kg, while the local rice price is between 180 and 190 yuan per 50 kg. Domestic grain and food businesses are not competitive with such prices.

In addition, due to the large number of imported genetically modified soybeans, domestic soybeans cannot be sold at a high price. Therefore, in major grain-producing areas such as Heilongjiang and Jilin in China, it is also indisputable that farmer households and farms discard soybeans and change soybeans on a large scale. According to statistics, the planting area of ​​soybeans in Heilongjiang Province in 2009 decreased by nearly 4% year-on-year, by nearly 10% year-on-year in 2010, and by approximately 20% year-on-year in 2011. Experts said that once domestic soybean cultivation continues to shrink, the impact will not be less than one year. The soybean production may even destroy the upstream and downstream industrial chains of domestic soybeans.

Play a role of tariffs and work hard to improve internal strength

Experts interviewed believe that China's agricultural products trade "net import" trend is difficult to reverse in the short term, and there is an expanding trend. Under the background of the increasing dependence of China's agricultural products on the degree of foreign dependence, it is necessary to guarantee the area of ​​arable land, stabilize farmers' enthusiasm for production, and conduct reasonable production planning.

According to the 2013-2022 Agricultural Outlook released jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, due to the declining quality of rural labor input, rising labor costs, and declining quality of cultivated land, China’s grain production will increase in the next 10 years. The speed will slow down. According to Ma Wenfeng, an analyst at Eastern Iger Agricultural Consulting Co., according to current prices, imports of major grain varieties this year will remain relatively high.

Some grassroots cadres and people interviewed by the reporter also believe that China must continue to increase its support for agricultural production in order to ensure food security. Liu Guohua, deputy director of Shandong Province's Gaotang County Grain Bureau, said that although the enthusiasm of farmers for grain production has increased in recent years compared to previous years, relatively speaking, planting income is still relatively low, resulting in the majority of the elderly and women farming in rural areas. Farmers are also unwilling to make large-scale investment in the land. To stabilize the planting area and increase grain production, it is necessary to continue to increase support in the long run.

The survey shows that the current average tariff rate for agricultural products in the world is 62%, and the maximum tariff rate can even reach over 1000%. The average tariff rate for agricultural products in China is 15.2%, which is less than 1/4 of the world average. Take soybean as an example, the tariff level Only 3%. In addition, China's wheat, corn, rice, sugar, cotton, wool and other important agricultural products are subject to tariff quota management, and the maximum tariff is only 65%.

"It is difficult for such tariff levels to act as a threshold," said many industry insiders.

Li Guoxiang also stated that in view of the current situation facing domestic agricultural products, it is necessary to protect agricultural resources, accelerate innovation in agricultural science and technology, increase agricultural production capacity, build a new type of agricultural production and management system, cultivate new types of agricultural production and management entities, and increase agricultural support and protection. We will mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers for growing grain.

On the other hand, it is necessary to raise the level of risk management for food imports, encourage domestic agribusiness enterprises to go global, make overall use of both domestic and international markets, actively develop multiple import markets, and pilot construction of international grain processing reserve special economic zones through preferential policies in coastal regions to attract international Grain merchants transport international grain to China's coastal reserves for processing.

In addition, the effect of transgenic crops on the increase of grain yield is obvious, but its quality and safety are still controversial. At present, China's most imported genetically modified crops are soybeans. Some experts believe that the state should exercise serious caution in genetically modified and transgenic agricultural products. On the one hand, the government is determined to conquer the peak of research on genetically modified technology. Through the implementation of the national new varieties of genetically modified organisms, some advanced varieties should be cultivated as soon as possible; on the other hand, biosafety issues must be highly regarded and the strict management of genetically modified seeds must be strengthened. The scope of national security management.